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7 - Technology Portfolios: Modelling Technological Uncertainty and Innovation Risks
- from Part II - Patterns and Linkages in the Energy Technology Innovation System
- Edited by Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Charlie Wilson, University of East Anglia
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- Energy Technology Innovation
- Published online:
- 18 December 2013
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- 30 December 2013, pp 89-102
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Author Bios
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- By Laura Díaz Anadón, Per Dannemand Andersen, Evandro Luíz Dall’Oglio, Sabine Fuss, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Arnulf Grubler, Arne Jacobson, Martin Jakob, Kejun Jiang, Daniel M. Kammen, Ruud Kempener, Osamu Kimura, Bernadett Kiss, Volker Krey, David McCollum, Dustin Meyer, Lynn Mytelka, Lena Neij, Gregory F. Nemet, Anastasia O’Rourke, Rich Press, Keywan Riahi, Paulo Teixeira de Sousa, Charlie Wilson
- Edited by Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Charlie Wilson, University of East Anglia
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- Book:
- Energy Technology Innovation
- Published online:
- 18 December 2013
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- 30 December 2013, pp ix-xii
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Summary for Policy Makers
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay), Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme), Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 3-30
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) demonstrates that energy system change is the key for addressing and resolving these challenges. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained and immediate action.
Transformative change in the energy system may not be internally generated; due to institutional inertia, incumbency and lack of capacity and agility of existing organizations to respond effectively to changing conditions. In such situations clear and consistent external policy signals may be required to initiate and sustain the transformative change needed to meet the sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby, reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, some 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the people in the world.
Chapter 1 - Energy Primer
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- By Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Luis Mundaca, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Lars Strupeit, Lund University, Peter Kolp, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Jordan Macknick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Yu Nagai, Vienna University of Technology, Mathis L. Rogner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Kjartan Steen-Olsen, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Jan Weinzettel, Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Ogunlade Davidson, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 99-150
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Summary
Introduction and Roadmap
Life is but a continuous process of energy conversion and transformation. The accomplishments of civilization have largely been achieved through the increasingly efficient and extensive harnessing of various forms of energy to extend human capabilities and ingenuity. Energy is similarly indispensable for continued human development and economic growth. Providing adequate, affordable energy is a necessary (even if by itself insufficient) prerequisite for eradicating poverty, improving human welfare, and raising living standards worldwide. Without economic growth, it will also be difficult to address social and environmental challenges, especially those associated with poverty. Without continued institutional, social, and technological innovation, it will be impossible to address planetary challenges such as climate change. Energy extraction, conversion, and use always generate undesirable by-products and emissions – at a minimum in the form of dissipated heat. Energy cannot be created or destroyed – it can only be converted from one form to another, along a one-way street from higher to lower grades (qualities) of energy. Although it is common to discuss energy “consumption,” energy is actually transformed rather than consumed.
This Energy Primer 1 aims at a basic-level introduction to fundamental concepts and data that help to understand energy systems holistically and to provide a common conceptual and terminological framework before examining in greater detail the various aspects of energy systems from challenges and options to integrated solutions, as done in the different chapters of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).
Technical Summary
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Doug J. Arent, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme, Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 31-94
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic, and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace, and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
In this context, two considerations are important. The first is the capacity and agility of the players within the energy system to seize opportunities in response to these challenges. The second is the response capacity of the energy system itself, as the investments are long-term and tend to follow standard financial patterns, mainly avoiding risks and price instabilities. This traditional approach does not embrace the transformation needed to respond properly to the economic, environmental, and social sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
A major transformation is required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for human and planetary systems. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained, and immediate action.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, approximately 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the world's population.
Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development
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- By Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Frank Dentener, Joint Research Center, Dolf Gielen, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Jessica Jewell, Central European University, Zbigniew Klimont, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, David McCollum, University of California, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Shilpa Rao, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Bas van Ruijven, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Charlie Wilson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Morna Isaac, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Shigeki Kobayashi, Toyota Central R&D Laboratories, Peter Kolp, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Yu Nagai, Vienna University of Technology, Pallav Purohit, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Jules Schers, PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Rita van Dingenen, Joint Research Center, Oscar van Vliet, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 1205-1306
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Summary
Executive Summary
Chapter 17 explores possible transformational pathways of the future global energy system with the overarching aim of assessing the technological feasibility as well as the economic implications of meeting a range of sustainability objectives simultaneously. As such, it aims at the integration across objectives, and thus goes beyond earlier assessments of the future energy system that have mostly focused on either specific topics or single objectives. Specifically, the chapter assesses technical measures, policies, and related costs and benefits for meeting the objectives that were identified in Chapters 2 to 6, including:
providing almost universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor;
limiting air pollution and health damages from energy use;
improving energy security throughout the world; and
limiting climate change.
The assessment of future energy pathways in this chapter shows that it is technically possible to achieve improved energy access, air quality, and energy security simultaneously while avoiding dangerous climate change. In fact, a number of alternative combinations of resources, technologies, and policies are found capable of attaining these objectives. From a large ensemble of possible transformations, three distinct groups of pathways (GEA-Supply, GEA-Mix, and GEA-Efficiency) have been identified and analyzed. Within each group, one pathway has been selected as “illustrative” in order to represent alternative evolutions of the energy system toward sustainable development. The pathway groups, together with the illustrative cases, depict salient branching points for policy implementation and highlight different degrees of freedom and different routes to the sustainability objectives.
Chapter 10 - Mitigation Potential and Costs
- Edited by Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga, Youba Sokona, Kristin Seyboth, Susanne Kadner, Timm Zwickel, Patrick Eickemeier, Gerrit Hansen, Steffen Schlömer, Christoph von Stechow, Patrick Matschoss
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- Book:
- Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
- Published online:
- 05 December 2011
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- 21 November 2011, pp 791-864
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Summary
Executive Summary
Renewable energy (RE) has the potential to play an important and increasing role in achieving ambitious climate mitigation targets. Many RE technologies are increasingly becoming market competitive, although some innovative RE technologies are not yet mature, economic alternatives to non-RE technologies. However, assessing the future role of RE requires not only consideration of the cost and performance of RE technologies, but also an integrative perspective that takes into account the interactions between various forces and the overall systems behaviours.
An increasing number of integrated scenario analyses are available in the published literature. They are able to provide relevant insights into the potential contribution of RE to future energy supplies and climate change mitigation. A review of 164 scenarios from 16 different large-scale integrated models was conducted through an open call. Although a collection of scenarios from the literature does not represent a truly random sample suitable for rigorous statistical analysis, a scenario overview can provide some critical and strategic insights about the role of RE in climate mitigation, in spite of the uncertainties involved.
Although it is not possible to precisely link long-term climate goals and global RE deployment levels, RE deployment significantly increases in the scenarios with ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration stabilization levels. Ambitious GHG concentration stabilization levels lead on average to higher RE deployment compared to the baseline. However, for any given long-term GHG concentration goal, the scenarios exhibit a wide range of RE deployment levels.